Demographic Transition Theory - Public Health Notes

Demographic Transition Theory

The word ‘Demography’ came from the prefix ‘demo’ meaning people and ‘graphy’ meaning description or measurement. Similarly, ‘transition’ means process of changing from one state to another
So, the phrase ‘Demographic Transition Theory’ clearly reflects from the name itself that it is a theory/model which describes the population change that occurs over a period of time
Demographic Transition is a gradual process in which a society moves from high birth rate and death rate to low birth rate and death rate
It deals with population change occurring from the past to the change that may occur in future
Furthermore, the theory shows the transition of population from high birth and death rate to low birth and death rate as the country (or any region) moves from pre-industrial era to an industrialized era. Thus the major emphasis of the theory is given to the economic development which results in change in population
The theory was 1^st propounded and interpreted by an American demographer Warren Thompson who saw changes in the population pattern all over the world in due course of time
It looks at three major indicators for assessing and predicting population change: fertility, mortality and growth rate
There are usually 4-5 stages for categorizing demographic transition. This is because earlier categorization was done in 4 stages. However, with the change in population pattern which could not be addressed by 4 stages, a new 5^th stage has been added to it.
Here we have explained this theory considering all 5 stages. Stages of demographic transition are described below:

High Stationary Stage

The stage before industrial revolution. Also known as Pre-transition phase
The country or region in this stage are characterized by high fertility (birth rate) and high mortality (death rate)
This stage has low or stable growth rate i.e. population remains constant due to high birth and death rate
Reasons for high birth rate were: lack of family planning methods, high infant mortality rate convincing couples to have more babies, more family members = more source of economic assets
Reasons for high mortality rate were: poor health and health services, famine, lack of proper education and unavailability of clean water and sanitation
Relatively low people in older age

2. Early expanding phase

In this stage, birth rate keeps on increasing while death rates begin to fall rapidly/sharply. This results in high/rapid population growth
It is also known as population explosion stage
Reasons for decline in death rates were: increase in food supply due to agricultural revolution and improvement in health and sanitation causing reduction in child mortality
High birth rate results in larger cohort of younger population
Most of the least developed countries are in this stage

3. Late expanding phase

In this stage the birth rate also starts to fall/decrease
However, the major point is that, while birth rate starts to decrease slowly and gradually, death rate also keeps on falling slowly. This leads to the narrowed gap between birth and death rate compared to early expanding stage
Result of this stage is low population growth or natural increase in population
Reasons for gradual decrease in birth rates were: the introduction of contraceptive devices, increase in women’s status and rise in economic conditions and education level of the people
Most of the developing countries are in this stage

4. Low stationary/low fluctuating stage

It is known as the stage of stationary population
In this stage, birth rates and death rates both are low. Also both of them are approximately equal to each other
This results in stability/slow rise in population
Most of the developed countries are in this stage

5. Declining Phase

This stage is characterized by low death rate, lower birth rate and excess deaths over births
In this stage birth rates are below death rates i.e. fertility rate is below the replacement level (2 children). This leads to increase in dependent/elderly population compared to the younger populations
This stage is resulted due to continuous desire of the families to have a smaller family
Some parts of Europe like Russia, Sweden and Germany and Japan are reaching towards this stage

Strengths/Uses of this theory

Based on actual population growth trend of the countries of the world
Universal applicability i.e. Applicable to both developing and developed countries
Allows comparison between the countries

Disadvantages/limitations of this theory

The theory is accused of being Eurocentric i.e. following the trend of European countries. This is because all the countries may not follow the same stages of population transition. Also, results might be different in cases of countries going through war as they are less likely to experience industrialization
It does not consider the impact of migration as countries like USA and Canada experienced migration from European regions and did not have to pass through earlier stages
The model cannot predict how long any country will remain in a certain stage

References

http://pages.uwc.edu/keith.montgomery/Demotrans/demtran.htm

https://www.populationeducation.org/content/what-demographic-transition-model

http://papp.iussp.org/sessions/papp101_s01/PAPP101_s01_090_010.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/population_change_structure_rev4.shtml

https://www.boundless.com/sociology/textbooks/boundless-sociology-textbook/population-and-urbanization-17/population-growth-122/demographic-transition-theory-690-10230/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2781829/

http://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-demographic-transition-definition-stages.html

http://shrinking.ums-riate.fr/Ressources/Chap_01/KIR_96.pdf

http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/economic-development/4-main-stages-of-demographic-transition-economic-development/19129

https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1434497

http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/population/the-theory-of-demographic-transition-population/10895/